A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
