Netherlands Polls: Key Players and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most conservative government in recent memory with a more moderate and commonsense coalition during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in June, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, NSC party and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on 3 June after his partners refused to adopt a radical 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to gain representation, but none is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen every four years – earlier if administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in much of Europe, Dutch politics have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Key Players and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but slumped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a complete unification, is projected to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its platform.
Three other parties appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign focused on housing (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of legislative seats.
The top issues so far have been migration policy, with several – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.